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The Stables
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Badminton Road
Frampton Cotterell
Bristol, South Glos
BS36 2NY
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Fax: 01454 327799



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November 2011

MARKET UPDATE

UK
  • The FTSE All Share delivered a positive return of 7.9% over the month bouncing back from weak performance of the third quarter as global events again took centre stage.
  • News that RPI rose to 5.6% was shrugged off by the market and the Bank of England.
  • As expected, the Bank of England announced a further round of Quantitative Easing, pledging to purchase another £75 billion of UK Government Bonds over the following four months.
  • After September’s outperformance by the defensive sectors, more cyclical sectors performed well in October.

US

  • US economic data appeared to show the country is moving away from recession as the pace of growth accelerated faster than expected in the 3rd quarter of 2011. 
  • The quarterly earnings season produced a round of solid corporate profit reports further helping sentiment.
  • GDP figures and encouraging US corporate results were enough to tempt investors back in to the Stock Market and steer them away from perceived safe haven assets.
  • In terms of sector performance, energy, financials and industrials all fuelled the rise while consumer staples, healthcare and utilities recorded only modest gains.

EUROPE

  • European equity markets enjoyed a strong bounce at the beginning of October in the anticipation that Europe’s leaders would solve the Eurozone crisis at the summit meeting held at the end of the month.
  • The crisis summit persuaded private sector holders of Greek debt to take a 50% write down. It also forced Europe’s banks to raise another 10 billion Euros of capital and the bailout fund will increase from 440 billion Euros to 1 trillion Euros.
  • The last day of the month delivered the unwelcome news that the Greek Prime Minister wanted to subject the country’s newly agreed bailout plan to a referendum which caused markets to weaken.

ASIA & EMERGING MARKETS

  • Asian equities rebounded strongly in October recovering some of their recent losses.  A number of factors combined to help improve investor sentiment including progress towards a resolution of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis, positive US data and better news from China.
  • Chinese inflation fell to 5.5% in October, a downward trend that may continue given falling food prices.
  • China led the gains with industrials, materials and the financial sector generating strong returns. Initial estimates showed that China’s third quarter GDP grew 9.1% year on year which, while less than expected, is still impressive.
  • However there were signs of fading growth elsewhere in the region, with Taiwan’s third year GDP growth of 3.5% lower than expected, while export growth in Korea hit a two year low.
  • Inflation in India remained high with the Reserve Bank of India raising its benchmark lending rate for the 13th time since March 2010. However, manufacturing and export data for October showed a significant improvement.
  • In Australia the Reserve Bank cut interest rates in response to lower inflation, although the move was also seen as supportive to a domestic economy in which confidence is low outside the resources sector.

JAPAN

  • Japanese equity markets generated small positive returns over the month, underperforming their more volatile peers.  Although recent external market headwinds subsided, the yen remained stubbornly strong, even as the US Dollar strengthened against other currencies.  This led to the Bank of Japan to intervene in currency markets for the third time this year; a move welcomed by large Japanese exporters.
  • There was an improvement in the unemployment rate which fell to 4.1% in September from 4.3% in August with post earthquake reconstruction demand fuelling job creation in the construction, services, healthcare and welfare services.

FIXED INTEREST

  • High yield outperformed investment grade and Government Bonds during October.
  • Core Government Bonds prices fell during the month as risk assets outperformed and economic data in China and US were better than expected.
  • This shift in sentiment resulted in a sharp change in asset class performance compared to September. Credit spreads narrowed as corporate bonds outperformed core government bonds.


Investment Seminar Feedback

Teleconference on 9th November 2011 with Sanjeev Shah - Manager of the Fidelity UK Special Situations Fund

  • Market conditions over the last 18 months have not suited Sanjeev’s contrarian value approach to investing and his priority is to turnaround what has been a period of poor performance.
  • Although there is a lot of a negative sentiment surrounding market at the present time, it is Sanjeev’s opinion that the world economy is likely to return to some form of normality with three to five years and that many of the stocks he owns are very attractively priced on this assumption. He feels that there will be an “anaemic” recovery, rather than a double-dip.
  • He maintains his contrarian style focusing on “unloved” and unfashionable companies.  Banks and the financial services sector are amongst the least popular sectors with other investors; however Sanjeev feels that retail banks, particularly Lloyds and HSBC, offer good value as the spread on valuations is close to historically low levels. 
  • Sanjeev feels that he is able to hold quality growth companies cheaply. With the fund positioned ready for an upturn in sentiment this in many ways complements some of the other funds that we hold in our portfolios, where managers are positioned more defensively.

New Savings Product

Legal & General Inflation Protected Deposit Bond 

Launched 14th November, closes 6th January 2012

A cash savings vehicle that is suitable for Cash ISAs and Cash ISA transfers came to the market this week and was discussed in the meeting. It offers a minimum return of 17.5% after five years (equal to 3.27% AER), or if greater, 100% of any growth in the Retail Price Index.

In some respects one of the downsides of National Savings Index Linked Savings Certificates is that you could lose relative to saving in a Cash ISA if inflation is low (as happened in 2009). With this plan you don’t get the promise of the extra 0.5% pa that NS&I offer but you do get a minimum savings rate equal to 3.27% per year even if inflation were to come down. According to Moneyfacts the best 5 year fixed rate ISA is Halifax at 4.4% then Northern Rock at 4.0% so if inflation is low over the next 5 years the loss compared to the best fixed rate ISAs is 1.13% per year. This potential comparative loss should be set against the fact that inflation as measured by RPI could quite feasibly average well over the 4.4% rate offered by Halifax due to the risk of continuing to import inflation and the uncertain side effects of Quantitative Easing.

Clients wishing to know more about this bond should contact their usual adviser.


Conclusion

It was pleasing to see some recovery of confidence during October. The market seems to be torn between recognising very attractive valuations on an historical basis but fearing the unknown consequences of Europe’s Sovereign Debt crisis. Sanjeev Shah’s teleconference specifically with the Fraser Heath Investment Committee gave us some cause for optimism both in terms of his fund and in the opportunities for investors in general at this time. If Sanjeev and Fidelity are right in their view that the most likely outcome is a gradual return to normality, then brave investors should be well rewarded by committing to the markets at this time.

Date of Next Meeting:  15th December 2011